Housing Demand Trends
The CMHC Housing Market Information Portal provides a powerful, nation-wide visualization of housing market trends.
Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)
Retrieved From: https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/hmiportal/en
For 2016, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported exceptionally strong house listings price growth in the Niagara region, where, year-over-year compared to 2015, the average MLS price in August 2016 grew by 18%, or nearly $52,000. The municipalities that experienced the strongest price growth during this period included Port Colborne/Wainfleet (52%), Niagara Falls (30%) and Fort Erie (26%).
This price growth erodes affordability in the market, where a household’s required income for home ownership will increase at a faster pace than earned income.
For the rental market, this trend results in increased pressure on an already limited supply of rental units, and increased rental prices.
Source: CMHC Housing Market Outlook, Fall 2016
Retrieved from: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64315/64315_2016_B02.pdf?fr=1499782124906
In 2017 in the Niagara region, CMHC notes that house listing price growth continues, but is growing at a more modest pace. The average MLS price for all of 2017 is forecast to be in the $384,700 to $392,300 range. The MLS average listing price for 2018 is forecast to be between $375,600 and $387,400. For 2019 the forecast is between $380,700 and $400,000.
Overall migration and new housing starts are expected to slow as affordability continues to erode.
Source: CMHC Housing Market Outlook, Fall 2017
Retrieved from: https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/catalog/productDetail.cfm?cat=99&itm=13&lang=en&fr=1510078551355
New Housing Starts
The above table and chart show the number of housing starts by local municipality in Niagara, from 2013 to 2016. Note, there is no available information on West Lincoln.
Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)
Retrieved From: https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/hmiportal/en
Vacancy Rates
The following data is taken from the annual CMHC Rental Market Survey. It is based on the St. Catharines-Niagara CMA (does not include Grimsby and West Lincoln). It illustrates yearly trends in rental vacancy rates by bedroom type. Double-hyphens indicate suppressed values.
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
| Bachelor | 2.9% | 4.9% | — |
| One bedroom | 3.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% |
| Two bedrooms | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| Three or more bedrooms | 2.8% | 4.8% | 1.5% |
| Overall vacancy rate | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% |
Source for 2016 figures: “Rental Market Report: St. Catharines-Niagara CMA”. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. 2016. Retrieved from: https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/catalog/productDetail.cfm?lang=en&cat=79&itm=35&fr=1482175656657
Source for 2014 and 2015 figures: “Rental Market Report: St. Catharines-Niagara CMA”. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. Fall 2015. Retrieved from: https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/catalog/productDetail.cfm?lang=en&cat=79&itm=35&fr=1482175656657
